Island Sun Times

Many have wasted long hours speculating on the reasons for the downturn in the commercial indoor tanning business, running through hypotheses centered on increased oil prices, global warming causing unusual weather patterns, baby boomers concerned about wrinkles in later life, and skin cancer scares from anti-UV doctors. While the rest of the economy has improved markedly since 9/11, tanning salons and their suppliers have struggled to pull out of a mysterious doldrums-ridden state, characterized by wholesale store closures, class action suits against franchisors, and – for the first time in the history of the industry – bankruptcies of both lotion and equipment manufacturers.

Like hawks looking for the prairie dogs to stream out of their burrows in spring, salon owners and distributors alike have awaited the hordes of tanners to appear during the two weeks following January 31st, albeit in vain since 2004. When February of ‘07 came and went like a wimpy lamb, some said “Enough’s enough, already!” and began packing up in search of greener pastures. Then March came in like a lion, and all bets, once again, were off.

In the blink of an eye, patrons throughout both Europe and North America were virtually flooding into salons, in many cases overwhelming stores that have had to cut back on personnel in order to deal with the plodding dearth. Distributors, disheartened by one of the slowest Februaries in memory, found themselves caught behind the supply curve and scrambled for delivery positions with manufacturers who had themselves drastically cut back on-hand inventories. Strategic alliances between formerly bitter competitors sprang up literally overnight, as did a cadre of desperate “consultants” comprised of managers jettisoned by companies engaged in frantic cost-cutting to weather the storm.

Despite all the activity and exhilaration, however, the level of optimism – or rather lack thereof – remained constant. In other words, there wasn’t much. Shell shocked mavens of the artificial sun seemed predisposed to hold off on celebrating for the moment, not unlike the Okies’ numb reaction to the arrival of rain and the impending end of the Great Depression toward the anti-climax in John Steinbeck’s classic “The Grapes of Wrath.”

The ability to analyze the year-to-year trends of traditional “feast or famine” businesses like fitness centers, beach tourism and wedding planners is far less complicated than attempting to divine the future of indoor tanning. Although this is mostly due to the short history of the sector thus far, economists with whom I have spoken over the years point to the lack of standardized oversight organizations, i.e. accredited trade boards or accounting commissions, as a major contributing factor to the problem. In addition, there is continuous mention of the fact that no companies have yet gone public or been acquired by major privately held corporations that would be subject to comprehensive disclosure reporting.

So, getting to the meat in answering the million dollar questions: When will it ever be over? Will it remain problematic until professional salon service providers collectively make an effort to support a representative body that has the economic development of the industry at heart? In the meantime, someone call me when you hear the Fat Lady hit the high note.